As of September 2025, Calgary’s housing market is shifting under the weight of higher inventory, moderating sales, and new signals from the Bank of Canada. With the first interest rate cut since March now in place, buyers and sellers alike are asking: Will prices continue to decline, or is a rebound coming in 2026?
This forecast reviews the latest data, analyzes detached vs. condo trends, and explores scenarios for the remainder of 2025 into 2026.
Calgary Housing Market So Far in 2025
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Benchmark & average prices: Calgary’s average home price sat around $612,000 in August 2025, nearly flat year-over-year. Detached homes declined about –3%, while condo/apartment prices slipped roughly –6% compared to 2024.
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Inventory growth: Listings are up ~48% YoY, giving buyers more choice and shifting conditions toward balance.
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Market balance: The sales-to-new listings ratio is ~57%, indicating a balanced market. Detached homes now average 20 days on market, up from 13 days last year.
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CREB outlook: The Calgary Real Estate Board expects ~3% price growth in 2025 overall, though outcomes vary sharply by housing type.
Interest Rates & Monetary Policy (Updated September 2025)
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Latest move: The Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% this September.
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Immediate effect: Buyer confidence has improved slightly, and mortgage affordability is easing for some households.
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What’s next:
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If further cuts follow in late 2025 or early 2026: demand could strengthen, especially for condos and entry-level homes.
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If this is a one-time cut: detached homes may remain under pressure as affordability challenges linger.
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Detached Homes vs. Condos
Detached Homes
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Carrying costs remain high, so detached homes are most vulnerable to further price declines.
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Buyers are more selective, and homes needing upgrades face steeper discounts.
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Premium communities with limited supply may hold value better.
Condos & Townhomes
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Resilient thanks to lower entry prices and rental demand.
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Still, some investors are cautious due to higher condo fees and reserve fund risks.
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Well-managed newer buildings continue to attract first-time buyers.
Further reading: Calgary Condo Market Update: Prices, Trends, and Investment Opportunities
Scenarios for Late 2025 → 2026
| Scenario | Price Movement | Key Triggers / Conditions | Likely Outcome by Mid-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soft Stabilization | Detached: –3% to –5%; Condo: ±0% to +1% | September cut stabilizes demand; supply steady | Prices flatten, recovery begins in late 2026 |
| Rate-Driven Rebound | Detached: +2% to +5%; Condo: +5% to +8% | More rate cuts, stronger migration | Growth resumes, especially for condos & townhomes |
| Extended Pressure | Detached: –5% to –8%; Condo: –3% to –6% | Only one cut, listings keep rising | Deeper corrections in detached; investor caution |
What This Means for Buyers, Sellers & Investors
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For Buyers: Fall 2025 could be an opportunity to negotiate, especially in detached homes. Stay ready to act if rates cut again.
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For Sellers: Competitive pricing is crucial. Proper staging and timing can still deliver strong results.
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For Investors: Condos and townhomes offer potential upside, but always examine condo fees and reserve funds before purchasing.
Conclusion
With one rate cut already in place and market conditions leaning toward balance, Calgary real estate is at a turning point. Whether we see stabilization, rebound, or continued pressure depends largely on interest rates, inventory, and migration trends.
Want tailored advice on how this forecast impacts your neighborhood? Contact us for a personalized strategy for late 2025 and beyond.
Posted by Ray Yang on
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